(電子商務(wù)研究中心訊) 我們?nèi)匀幌嘈臞D。COM的邊緣演化的故事。我們認(rèn)為，4%的股價(jià)下跌后的結(jié)果可以解釋為市場對其收縮幅度的不安。然而，這主要是由于在六月店慶促銷，從JD金融沖擊剝離，并實(shí)現(xiàn)成本的分類。我們預(yù)計(jì)利潤率反彈3q17e為管理提供了明亮的收入指導(dǎo)(36% - 40%年)。此外，京東將2017全年的非GAAP凈利潤指導(dǎo)0.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)0.5% 1.5%的信心。以下的收入預(yù)測升級(27%的收入年復(fù)合增長率在2016-19e)，我們也將我們的非GAAP凈利潤15 / 10個(gè)基點(diǎn)至1% / 1.1% 2017 / 18e。滾動到2018e銷售，我們上調(diào)目標(biāo)價(jià)至51美元(42美元)在1.1x P/S(在其3年平均P / S線)。重申買入京東。下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)：慢流量增益和利潤稀釋在不斷升級的競爭。
2q17是另一個(gè)令人鼓舞的季度。非GAAP凈利潤同比增長了59%至rmb977m，為首的一個(gè)強(qiáng)勁的收入增長44%(高于35% - 39%公司指導(dǎo))訂單增長(+ 41%)和大票的大小。年度活躍客戶賬戶數(shù)量同比上漲37%，環(huán)比上升9%至258m，成功的品類擴(kuò)張幫助贏得女性消費(fèi)者。
毛利率同比基本持平，如JD.com給予豐厚的獎勵(lì)給消費(fèi)者在“6.18”周年慶典。非GAAP運(yùn)營利潤率同比收縮0.2-ppt 0.6%營銷費(fèi)用較高的“6.18”購物節(jié)。rmb20.3bn JD.com產(chǎn)生自由現(xiàn)金流包括rmb17.9bn經(jīng)營現(xiàn)金流量和資本支出的季度13億。年度審核后，即鎖定在與供應(yīng)商，導(dǎo)致2q17再付天更好的付款條件。
可以在服裝進(jìn)一步收購。Richard Liu的創(chuàng)始人兼首席執(zhí)行官強(qiáng)調(diào)，如果有合適的機(jī)會，有可能在服裝品類中進(jìn)行更多的收購。作為服裝和鞋類提供了大約40%的中國的B2C網(wǎng)購市場部門決算，不言而喻的是，京東要做更多的戰(zhàn)略性投資，不斷學(xué)習(xí)，在我們看來。我們重申我們的觀點(diǎn)，唯品會(貴賓美國，購買，TP 17美元)提出了一個(gè)很好的補(bǔ)充，JD公司的自營服裝生意(大眾市場定位)和最近投資Farfetch，全球奢侈品在線市場(針對富裕的群體)。
交易理念。在購買。我們贊成JD公司加速在中國的市場份額獲得網(wǎng)上零售市場和即將到來的物流資產(chǎn)重估。
原文：
We remain convinced about JD.com’s margin evolution story. In our view, the 4% share price drop post results could be explained by market’s unease on its margin contraction QoQ. However, this was primarily attributable to anniversary promotion in June, impact from JD Finance spin-off, and reclassification of fulfillment costs. We anticipate margin rebound in 3Q17E for which management offered bright revenue guidance (up 36%-40% YoY). Plus, JD.com raised its 2017 full year non-GAAP net margin guidance by 50bps to 0.5%-1.5% with confidence. Following revenue forecast upgrade (27% revenue CAGR in 2016-19E), we also lift our non-GAAP net margin by 15/10 bps to 1.0%/1.1% in 2017/18E. Rolling over to 2018E sales, we raise TP to US$51.00 (from US$42.00) on 1.1x P/S (in line with its 3-year average P/S). Reaffirm BUY on JD.com. Downside risks: slower traffic gain and margin dilution amid escalated competition.
2Q17 was another encouraging quarter. Non-GAAP net profit jumped 59% YoY to RMB977m, led by a robust 44% revenue growth (above the company guidance of 35%-39%) building on order growth (+41%) and larger ticket size. The number of annual active customer accounts rose 37% YoY and 9% QoQ to 258m, as successful category expansion helped win female consumers. Gross margin was largely flat YoY, as JD.com gave generous rewards to consumers during its“6.18”anniversary celebration. Non-GAAP operating margin contracted by 0.2-ppt YoY to 0.6% given higher marketing dollars for the“6.18”Shopping Festival. JD.com generated RMB20.3bn free cash flow including RMB17.9bn operating cash flow and RMB1.3bn capex in the quarter. Subsequent to annual review, JD.com locked in better payment terms with suppliers which led to longer payable days from 2Q17.
Could be further acquisition in apparel. Richard Liu, JD.com’s founder and CEO, highlighted the possibility of more acquisition(s) in the apparel category if there are suitable opportunities. As the apparel and footwear sector accounts for roughly 40% of China’s B2C online shopping market, it is self-evident that JD.com should make more strategic investments and move up the learning curve, in our view. We reiterate our view that Vipshop (VIPS US, BUY, TP US$17.00) presents a good complement to JD.com’s self-run apparel business (mass market positioning) and recently-invested Farfetch, a global luxury online marketplace (targeting the affluent group).
Trading idea. Stay BUY. We favor JD.com’s accelerated market share gain in China’s online retailing market and the upcoming revaluation of its logistics assets.（來源：交銀國際；編選：網(wǎng)經(jīng)社）
